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Consumer Electronics Industry Chain Research Report Series II: Consumer Electronics Industry Outlook and Analysis of the Impact of the Epidemic in the First Quarter

Consumer Electronics Industry Chain Research Report Series II: Consumer Electronics Industry Outlook and Analysis of the Impact of the Epidemic in the First Quarter

Analysis of the impact of the new coronavirus “epidemic” on domestic mobile phone sales

Through a detailed analysis of the global and domestic sales of each brand, online and offline sales, first-quarter and annual sales and other levels of data, we have made a quantitative analysis of the impact of the epidemic. Taking into account the impact of the epidemic in February and part of the impact in March, it is preliminarily estimated that the sales volume in the first quarter will be about 40%, and the overall volume will be about 35 million units, accounting for about 6.7% of the domestic annual sales of 368 million units, down 10% year-on-year. . Specifically, in Q1 2019, the domestic sales of Huawei, OPPO, VIVO, Xiaomi, Apple and other brands accounted for 12.42%, 14.69%, 13.39%, 8.35% and 3.4% of their total smartphone sales in the year. Samsung’s domestic sales are very small, and the impact of the epidemic on it will be minimal.

The domestic market is affected by the “epidemic” in the short term, and the supply chain is expected to rebound in the second quarter

With the 5G replacement wave in 2020 and the rebound in demand brought about by many innovations, the consumer electronics business cycle is clear, and Apple and Samsung are the first choice for investment opportunities in the industry chain throughout the year. Apple’s industry chain is optimistic about the opportunities of wearable devices, especially TWS and iWatch industry chain. Optimistic about the increase in the penetration rate of Android-based 5G mobile phones, the demand for RF inductors, connectors, and optical components will be upgraded, focusing on the performance growth of the high-quality supporting industry chain brought about by this.

Pay attention to the price increase of components caused by the impact on the supply side and the demand for replenishment of inventory

Affected by the epidemic, the supply side of some components has been hit by the impact and the demand for replenishing inventory. Passive components, panels, etc. have ushered in price increases. With the rebound of consumer electronics and the recovery of demand after the epidemic, it is expected to drive a new round of business cycle.

Continue to be optimistic about the 20-year consumer electronics opportunities, maintain the “overweight” rating of the sector

In the Apple industry chain, we mainly recommend Luxshare, Goertek, Xinwei Communication, Lens Technology, Changxin Technology, Dongshan Precision, etc. semiconductor key recommendation: Yangjie Technology, Zhuoshengwei, Shengbang Co., Ltd., Zhaoyi Innovation, etc. Recommendations for communication base stations: Shengyi Technology, Shennan Circuit, Fei Rongda, etc.; the panel price increase pays attention to BOE A, TCL Technology, etc., and maintains the “overweight” rating of the sector.

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